If I offered you a condo at 300psf, would you buy it?
Most people say yes straight away. But if nobody else can afford to buy it from you later, you cannot exit, and you make nothing. Price is not the question. Who can afford it when you sell is the question.
One word on WhatsApp and I will share what I am watching right now and why.
What I look at before I recommend anything
A checklist, not a feeling. If a project fails the first two, the finishes do not matter.
Land price against the region
I compare what the developer paid against the average for that area. Projects sitting below that line usually have the most room left to grow. It is a line on a chart, not a guess.
Who your exit buyer is
In five to eight years, which buyer group can afford your unit at the price you need? If I cannot name them, the entry is not safe regardless of how it is priced today.
Where we sit in the cycle
The same project bought at two different points in a cycle produces very different outcomes. Entry timing does more work than most people realise.
Supply in the immediate area
Not the national headline. What is completing within walking distance over the next few years, because that is what you compete against on exit.
The GFA rule change
Harmonisation changed how floor area is counted. Some launches give you more genuinely usable space for the same price.
Your holding power
The best entry in Singapore is worth nothing if you are forced to sell early. We size the purchase to what you can hold through a bad year, not a good one.
What actually moves prices from here
Headlines move sentiment. These move prices. I track four, and I will walk you through where each one stands when we speak.
- Interest rates. Lower rates cut the monthly instalment, which lifts what buyers can pay.
- Loan stress-test settings. Easing here quietly expands buying power across the whole market.
- The income to price gap. When incomes rise faster than prices, affordability improves even if headline prices do not fall.
- GFA harmonisation. A rule change that shifts the value of usable space between older and newer projects.
New launch or resale?
Resale gives you the unit today, and that matters if you need to move in now. But the lower entry price is often also a ceiling on growth, because the market has already worked out what that block is worth.
A new launch entered at the right point in a cycle has historically captured more of the up-move. The catch is that the entry point has to be right. That is the whole job.
Which suits you depends on your timeline, your holding power and what you need the property to do. Anyone who answers without asking about your situation is selling, not advising.
Emotion loses money. Strategy builds wealth. I have watched that play out through every cycle since 2003.
Justin Kong
Ask me which launches are worth a look right now.
I keep a running read on which projects are entering below the land-price average for their region. Send one word and I will tell you what I am watching.